Elijah Southwick
@ecsouthwick
Detroit Lions (+1000)
The Detroit Lions are rewriting their franchise history this season behind Coach of the Year favorite Dan Campbell (+125). Standing at 8-2, the Lions are the clear frontrunner for the NFC North title and are in the mix for the #1 overall seed in the NFC. As it stands, a 49ers-Lions NFC playoff matchup would take place in Detroit, and the 49ers are tied with the Chiefs as the second-favorite to win the Super Bowl (+475).
The Lions have flipped the NFL script on its head this season, and it all starts with their juggernaut offense. Detroit ranks 6th in both total passing yards and total rushing yards through 11 weeks. The offensive line is stout, and the team’s playmakers in the air and ground games are collectively having fantastic seasons.
The Lions defense is not nearly as high octane as the team’s offense, but they are succeeding in one key metric: pressure rate. The Lions rank #7 in the league in pressure rate, and for an otherwise unimpressive statistical defense, that’s a great ranking.
At +1000, the Lions can be not only a fun team to root for, but a profitable one.
Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
Similarly to the Lions, the Cowboys have been an offensive wrecking crew in the last month of football. Pair that with one of the league’s most stout passing defenses and Defensive Player of the Year Candidate Michah Parsons (+200), and the Cowboys are serious Super Bowl contenders this season.
The Eagles are two games ahead of the Cowboys for the NFC East title, which means the Cowboys would likely be traveling for the duration of the playoffs. That would be a massive challenge, but road teams have gone on magical playoff runs in the past. Betting on a team as hot as the Cowboys at the seventh-longest odds to win the Super Bowl is enticing.
Kansas City Chiefs (+475)
The Chiefs lost to the Eagles on Monday Night Football in what was one of the most highly anticipated games of the season. It was more of the same for the Chiefs, with their defense playing a great game and their offense lagging behind. That formula has taken the team to a 7-3 record on the year, good for second in the AFC, but they’re running out of time to fix their offensive issues.
QB Patrick Mahomes delivered a 51-yard dime to Marquez Valdez-Scantling in the endzone that could’ve been a game-winning score against the Eagles, but the veteran receiver dropped the pass. It would've been a tough catch, but with the stakes as high as they were and two hands on the ball with separation, he needs to make that catch. The wide receiver group is the Chiefs’ biggest deficiency, but with how good Mahomes is especially throwing to Travis Kelce, their offensive line, and their defense, the Chiefs are still major contenders to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Honorable Mention: Buffalo Bills (+2800)
The Bills have gone ice cold, and as we stand today, one of the league’s perennial contenders is on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture. I bet the Bills at +1600 earlier in November, and while they’ve lost twice since that bet, I think this is still a very juicy buy low opportunity. Buffalo is just 1.5 games back of Miami for the division title and has a shot to win it with a head-to-head matchup in Miami in Week 18. If the Bills heat up and secure a home playoff game, these will be the lowest odds you’ll get on them. But one or two more tough losses could sink their season, so buyer beware.